Grain Happenings
May 04, 2026
The grain market in the Upper Midwest as of May 2026 is characterized as a period of volatility. Corn futures are currently following a classic seasonal pattern. Harvest lows were set in late October reflecting a large US corn crop, harvest pressure and farmer selling. Physical supply simply overwhelmed near-term demand during this time. We saw winter stabilization as US export surge in late November and December. Particularly to Mexico, Japan, and South Korea. The January WASDE Report resulted in the largest single day drop in over two years as they reported higher US yields and ending corn stock above 2.2 billion bushels. South American weather risks and a strong export pace provided the catalyst to add some risk premium despite ample global supplies. This led us into the range bound market we experienced up until the hostilities broke out in the Persian Gulf. Which brings us to our market tone of firm but constrained.
Some key concern would have to be burdensome US stocks, Export demand support, South American weather risk, and fund money re-entering longs. Nationally, planting progress registered 25% complete this week, this is 6% ahead of the 5-year average. While we are experiencing wet conditions in Wisconsin and the upper Midwest, we do have a little time.
Despite record usage and exports, overall production has kept the price under pressure. Remaining large stocks and end users needs met for the next 90 days will ensure a large carryout into next year, resulting in storage space constraints if we raise an average crop.
South American Safrinha corn crop account for 70-80% of Brazil’s total corn production and the bulk of its exportable supply. Because it grows late in the wet season, it is more weather sensitive than first crop corn. The weather concern is real with dryness in key Safrinha regions during critical times. Like any weather market, the risk premium can leave quickly.
Managed money has been building net-long positions in commodities as an inflation hedge. Ongoing geopolitical instability in the Middle East, elevated energy prices, and renewed concerns about food inflation have pushed macro investors back toward hard assets.
These four factors will be closely watched and discussed ad nauseam. If you borrow from an age old axiom “control what you can control” – lock in your grain marketing plan today to minimize risk and stay ahead of the market swings. United Cooperative has invested in the infrastructure to meet your logistics and marketing needs and we would forward to working with you to navigate a challenging marketing year.
Some key concern would have to be burdensome US stocks, Export demand support, South American weather risk, and fund money re-entering longs. Nationally, planting progress registered 25% complete this week, this is 6% ahead of the 5-year average. While we are experiencing wet conditions in Wisconsin and the upper Midwest, we do have a little time.
Despite record usage and exports, overall production has kept the price under pressure. Remaining large stocks and end users needs met for the next 90 days will ensure a large carryout into next year, resulting in storage space constraints if we raise an average crop.
South American Safrinha corn crop account for 70-80% of Brazil’s total corn production and the bulk of its exportable supply. Because it grows late in the wet season, it is more weather sensitive than first crop corn. The weather concern is real with dryness in key Safrinha regions during critical times. Like any weather market, the risk premium can leave quickly.
Managed money has been building net-long positions in commodities as an inflation hedge. Ongoing geopolitical instability in the Middle East, elevated energy prices, and renewed concerns about food inflation have pushed macro investors back toward hard assets.
These four factors will be closely watched and discussed ad nauseam. If you borrow from an age old axiom “control what you can control” – lock in your grain marketing plan today to minimize risk and stay ahead of the market swings. United Cooperative has invested in the infrastructure to meet your logistics and marketing needs and we would forward to working with you to navigate a challenging marketing year.